As a child, I often recall adults saying “Patience is a virtue,” or “Good things come to those who wait.” Living in a society whose zeitgeist revolves around the individual and instant gratification, patience tends to fall by the wayside. While there is inherent importance in risk-taking in order to achieve greatness, sometimes simply biding your time is the best thing to do. One of the caveats of playing the stock market is its incredibly volatile nature; you mess with the bull, you get the horns. To become a wise investor, you need an equal measure of risk-taking and knowing when to be patient.
What Causes Volatility?
In terms of a volatile market, we have to look at both the short and long-term fluctuations of market value. The simplest way to address short and long-term volatility comes with an understanding of supply and demand. Prices are driven up when demand is higher than the amount being sold; inversely, prices drop when more people want to sell than buy. The effects of supply and demand on the market can be seen daily in the market’s closing numbers.
Many believe that a company’s valuation largely determines the stock price, but many are wrong! A company’s value (price multiplied by outstanding shares) does not determine the stock price; rather, it is the opposite. Another important key concept is a company’s earnings. In theory, earnings should be the limiting factor for why a stock rises or falls. Au contraire, mon frère. The earnings determine the ability for the company to turn a profit, while the stock price is determined by the interest placed in the stock by investors.
Long-term stock fluctuation (positive or negative) relies on supply and demand principles, as does short-term stock fluctuation. However, there can be factors outstanding as to why a market would go through a period of intense highs or lows. During times of war, low economic prosperity due to unemployment, or periods where foreign trade decreases, the market (usually) tends to take a decline due to investors not putting money back into the market. On the flip side, periods of intense prosperity seem to drive market values higher, due to investors having more money to spend.
How Do We Counteract Volatility?
Short-term volatility really has no way of being stopped or counteracted. The market will always undergo some type of decrease, increase and leveling out, stemming from fickle investors just like ourselves. We all try to increase our profit margins in the long term through wise investing, but short-term money can be made through incremental buying. If you don’t have a broker and rely solely on your own wisdom and whatever you can glean from your TV financial news channel, incremental buying should be the ace up your sleeve. As the market ebbs and flows from hour to hour, buying one-hundred shares per hour (more or less, depending on the current price) allows you to increase your chance of making larger gains. Buying stocks hourly allows you to decrease the overall money spent per stock when price decreases and increase overall profit per stock when price increases.
Incremental buying works nicely for the long-term effects of a volatile market as well. However, the best tool you can use to curb the effects of long-term volatility is patience. When experiencing a difficult market similar to the one we have now, sometimes the best thing to do is just wait. I would personally advise taking the incremental route, primarily as a mid-risk/high-reward option. There’s always the chance of catching the stock at a low point, right before the soar. But patience is one of the greatests tools in a good investor’s arsenal. I stress the importance of patience for two reasons. First, history shows that markets trend toward stability. Second, rash decision-making backed by poor market understanding makes you no money. Riding the wave to shore works better than fighting the current.
When Will It Stop?
BlackRock Inc. has called for a halt on the market if volatility increases. A halt on the market would cause a temporary cessation of trading in order for investors and companies to get things figured out and back on a stable track. This would include a ‘limit-up/limit-down’ clause where the market would be halted if securities drop or rise above a certain threshold. Experts are saying that the market should calm down once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. An increase in interest rates would benefit those so-called thoroughbred stocks due to the sense of surety that investors attribute to them. The market beast may be wild right now, but it won’t stay that way forever. Starting this fourth quarter and looking towards the end of the year, keep an eye open for the market to be tamed.