China’s central bank has caught the markets off-guard by unexpectedly devaluing the yuan by nearly 2 percent against the U.S. dollar, roiling stocks as a result, especially those that sell to China. The central bank of China has tried to brush aside the magnitude of the move, calling it a ‘one-off depreciation’ and saying the change in policy will help drive the currency toward more market-driven movements. However, this is just another chapter in the worldwide currency war we are experiencing, and it should not come as a surprise at all.
First, it is helpful to examine more closely what China actually changed. The yuan has been pegged to the dollar for many years now, with Chinese officials allowing the yuan to trade 2% above or below a midpoint they set called the daily fixing. Officials can look at the daily trading when setting the midpoint, or they can arbitrarily set it higher or lower as they please.
The central bank has now changed its policy, saying it will base the midpoint off of the previous day’s closing price as well as market-makers’ quotes. As a result, it set the midpoint 2% lower than the previous day’s. This was the biggest devaluation of the yuan since 1994 when they let it fall by one-third as part of a breaking away from Communist state planning.
Because the rules are now more ‘market based’, it will be interesting to see if this really will be a one-off devaluation or if China will let the currency slide further. They could also continue to influence rates by entering the foreign exchange markets themselves with their reserves.
In the end, the mechanism or specifics are minor details compared to the real reason for the devaluation; participation in the global currency war. Almost nobody doubts that China is now fully engaged in the same game that developed countries have been playing for years now. Each one is devaluing their national currency as a last-ditch effort to stimulate more growth. Read More…