Post Brexit jitters have faded away and the market has gone on to crack new highs, partly aided by the rumors swirling of ‘helicopter money’ coming to central banker’s toolboxes around the world, but most notably Japan in the near future.
Once thought of as an imaginative or hypothetical example of what central bankers could do to combat deflation and get economies jump-started, helicopter money is now being seriously talked about. This is further evidence of the central banker’s mindset and why it is important now more than ever to make sure investment portfolios are fortified with a certain allocation of physical gold.
So when will money start dropping from the sky?
Surprisingly, the term helicopter money was first most famously used by the free-market economist Milton Friedman as a simple illustration of how money could be injected into an economy.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke then repeatedly used this term to additionally mean injecting money into the economy, but he also advocated for it in terms of central bank purchases of bonds and other financial assets, or to help the government finance fiscal stimulus. This earned him the nickname, Helicopter Ben.
It was therefore not lost on market participants when Helicopter Ben visited Japan a number of days ago and spoke with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the father of Abenomics – the grand experiment of trying to boost Japan’s economy by aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Mr. Bernanke did not specifically mention helicopter money in subsequent interviews, but he did note that Japan has more tools at their disposal to continue monetary easing. Ever since the meeting, market participants have continued speculating that some kind of easing will take place, sending the yen lower and stock markets higher.
Call it what you will, the result will be the same
Central bank actions have taken many forms over the past years since the crisis: lower (or even negative) interest rates, quantitative easing, monetary stimulus, and now helicopter money.
While it is not certain what helicopter money will actually look like if implemented, it would likely be some arrangement whereby the central bank directly finances government spending. In its extreme (and most literal) form, it could involve somehow getting newly printed money into the hands of consumers.
These are all slightly different programs and they work in different ways, but they all have the same thing in common: creating (printing) money and credit and then injecting it into the economy in an effort to try to boost spending, depreciate the domestic currency (thereby boosting exports), stoke inflation, or a combination of all three.
Add gold to your portfolio – now
This highlights why it is so important to be holding some physical gold. Bernanke is right in one sense: there is nothing physically holding back central bankers to continue these programs, and central banks will continue them because efforts thus far have proved unsuccessful.
What was once thought unthinkable and merely a thought experiment is becoming a reality. If in doubt, think of all those who thought negative interest rates were a crazy idea that would never be implemented.
Monetary easing, in whatever form, will likely continue until there is a severe depreciation or collapse of currency and correspondingly high inflation. Unfortunately, Japan already learned this lesson in the 1930’s and 1940’s when it embarked on a similar program of using the central bank to directly finance government spending, which unsurprisingly resulted in an inflationary surge.
History is repeating, and the chances of central banks admitting their policies do not work, and ceasing them or reversing course, is slim. Therefore, it is especially prudent at this time to allocate a portion of your investments to physical gold, and that is why we recommend a 10-20% allocation.